Week 1 - A look back

The Later Hosens vs. tsaogrip 0002

(Hosen's Paul Pierce, and friend)

In the Week 1 Forecast we predicted an 8-6 tsaogrip victory. It ended up 7-7-1, but not entirely for the reasons we suspected. While we were quite correct that 4 games from Redd and R-Jeff would give tsaogrip a boost (tops in the league in FGM, 3s, and PTS). We thought the Hosen would win 3's and DREB, and that tsaogrip would take FTM and FT%. What went wrong?

In 3's, Redd (11), Harrington (11), and Q-Rich (9) had excellent weeks, while for the Hosen, no one had more than 5 (Little Nate). Dismal weeks from Rafer and Barnes contributed to the Hosens lack of the long ball.

With respect to DREBs, we thought with only 2 Boozer games, tsaogrip would suffer. But Al-Jeff came through with 28 DREBs, and of course Oden was limited to 2 (significantly fewer than expected). Indeed tsaogrip led the league in DREBs as well (and AST, too!)

We were quite surprised by the excellence of the Hosen's percentages (2nd best in the league in both FG% - 47.3 and FT% - 78.3). David West shot 94% from the line, Granger 89%, T-Mac 83%, and T.J. Ford hit all 10 of his attempts from the stripe. That seems a bit flukey to us. The win in FTM is directly related. If they'd shot 72% rather than 78%, FTM would have been lost as well.

For the Hosen --

The Good: David West was a beast - 67/19

The Bad: PP shot 42% from the field and 63% from the line

The Ugly: Noah was not good - only 14MPG, 3PTs and not enough else to make up for it.

For tsaogrip --

The Good: Q-Rich is back! 3 games, 9 3s 52 PTS and 15 REBs

The Bad: Felton - 5.5PPG, 6.5APG, 2.5TO, 4PF - 21% FG%

The Ugly: K-Perk - .385 FG%, 3PPG, 7RPG, 4.7PF/G, and a crucial DISQ.

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Nor'easter vs. Mongoose

(Nor'Easter's Corey Maggette)

Our forecast was for a 9-6 Nor'easter victory, primarily due to the absence of the Mongoose's top 2 draft picks, D-Williams and B-Davis. The final score was 10-5 Nor'easter, Our category predictions were generally close, though we wrongly thought the Goose would win PFs and FT%. Instead, Mongoose had the worst FT% - 72% (and, it should be noted, the worst FG% - 41%) and the most PFs (132).

We were focussed on the Nor'easter bigs and their FT% woes (D-Howard, Duncan), and they were poor (51 and 64%, respectively), but a remarkable 28 FTM from C-Maggs made up for a lot. It turns out the culprit for the Mongoose was surprising: Rajon Rondo went 12-24 from the stripe. We'll be keeping a close eye to see if PCTs are a continuing issue for Mongoose in the weeks ahead.

For Nor'Easter--

The Good: A lot of good news - but overlooked amidst the excitement of RudyFern, Al-Thornt, and Pietrus is the amazing Joe Johnson, who averaged 30/5/3.5 with a steal and 2 3PG - 58% from the field!

The Bad: Jeff Foster, with only Rasho ahead of him, averaged 3PPG and 5RPG, shooting 16% from the field

The Ugly: Randy Foye - 7/3/5 - 22% shooting and 3.3.TO/G.

For Mongoose --

The Good: Beasley! Though it may not be good that his best player is a rookie, M-Beast debuted at 17/6 with a block and most of a 3 with few PFs or TOs

The Bad: Bynum  with 8/7 has to be a disappointment despite the 2 blocks.

The Ugly: Earl Watson was a bundle of bad - 6/4/5 with a steal, but 27% from the field and no 3s. Westbrook looks to overtake him sooner rather than later.

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Les Digits vs. play my$hkin flute

(J-Smoove of Les Digits)

We predicted something of a my$hkin blowout, as we just didn't see enough PT for Les Digits. Instead, the young Digits had just enough to win many of the specialty categories (AST by 5, BLK by 2, OREB by 2, DREB by 11) while winning all 4 negatives en route to a 10-5 victory. They did lose points by 100 (and were 200 behind the league leader), but it was an impressive all-round performance given the lack of games.

My$hkin should perhaps worry that they couldn't put the shorthanded Digits away, though it should be noted that if T-Chand hadn't missed 2 games, My$hkin would have easily won BLK, OREB, DREB, and perhaps even FG%. Dunleavy also missed 2 games, which would have put AST in my$hkin's column. This matchup was a lot closer than the final score indicates.

For Les Digits --

The Good: Rookies Rose and Chalmers stole the headlines, buy J-Smoove averaged 15.5/10.5, with 1.5 3s, and 3.5 blocks AND steals. Very impressive.

The Bad: Mike Conley - 7/3/2 in 3 games doesn't look so hot.

The Ugly: Marvin Williams, in his 1 game, had 2 points. He'll surely improve, but still...

For my$hkin --

The Good: Pau has really become quite a player. While he's not going to score 20/G in LA, his 14/10/3, with a block and good PCTs bodes well.

The Bad: RayRay averaged only 11/4/1, with 1 3pg. Is he done?

The Ugly: Leandro only had 7PPG (and nothing much else). Disturbing.

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thenopp vs. odensque

(odensque's Calderon)

We predicted an odensque 8-7 upset over thenopp, and were exactly right! We thought that Odensque would win DREB and STL, in which categories thenopp prevailed, but with 4 negatives, BLK, 3s, and splits in the %s and REBS, odensque won the battle.

Marc Gasol's emergence for thenopp is largely responsible for their surprisingly good REB numbers. Recall that their frontcourt is Yao, Z-Bo, J O'Neal, and the rookies M. Gasol and B-Lopez. Impressively Turkoglu averaged 6.7 RPG. Gasol averaged 8 and 8 in week 1 (and went off for 27 and 16 tonight).

Odensque got a bit less than expected from the Matrix and will need even more steals from him, Big Ben, and Moon in order to run the Doggers strategy successfully. Jose Calderon looks like he's going to average 10 assists, but it's shamefully going to waste on a team with no other PGs.

For thenopp --

The Good: Z-Bo! 16 and 10 with a surprising 2APG and 1SPG, with low negatives is very exciting in the new uptempo offense.

The Bad: Jermaine looks bad - 11/7/3, with 2 BPG doesn't sound terrible, but poor %s and 5.3 PF/G will hurt every week.

The Ugly: Wally - 6.5/1/0, with 3 fouls and half a 3PG ain't pretty.

For odensque --

The Good: Calderon shot 50% from the field, hit 14 of 14 FTs, and had 29 assists (only 8 TOs) and 6 3s in 3 games. Looks a lot like Steve Nash to me.

The Bad: Raja Bell - 10PPG, 1.3 3s, 1SPG, and absolutely nothing else. Can still be a cog in a Dogger-type team, but it's pretty hard to get .3 rebounds per game in 30 minutes - you have to run away from the ball, it seems to me

The Ugly: Darko at 5/5 with only .5 BPG isn't helping, at this point. Gasol's emergence in MEM makes him even less appealing.

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garbage speakers vs. The Lovin' Spoonful

(Spoonful's Udrih)

We conservatively predicted an 8-6 Spoonful victory. If we had known about the extent of Camby's injury, we might have bumped that up to 10-5 (assuming the Spoonful would then win OREB and DREB). As it turned out, the Speakers did not set their lineup, and it's hard to know how things would have gone had he done so. The Spoonful, in the event cruised to a 10-4 victory - losing FG%, TO, PF, and, embarrassingly, 3s.

The Spoonful expected to be quite competitive in FG% - but trading Gooden and Parker hurt that somewhat. Moreover, K-Durant and K-Mart are hurting the FG% right now. The Spoonful made a number of moves to be more competitive in 3s, adding Roger Mason and Lou Williams, but still are quite lacking in the category.

For the Speakers --

The Good: AK-47 - 14/7.5/3.5, 1.5 STL, 2 .5BLK - is he back? If so, quite a steal in the 8th round

The Bad: Odom - 8/6/2 isn't good enough.

The Ugly: Antonio Daniels - 7.5/1.5/4.5, and losing his job to Nick Young?

For the Spoonful --

The Good: Bosh was amazing 26/10/4 with a steal and a block - fine %s too, and only 1.7 PF/G

The Bad: If K-Mart only scores 18PPG, and shoots 38%, and doesn't rebound at all, the Spoonful is in trouble.

The Ugly: Beno - 8/3/4 is poor; his job may be in jeopardy at some point too.