Saturday Thoughts

 

Due to a disturbingly widespread lack of lineup-setting, we have 3 total blowouts, and only two close matchups to look at.

Les Digits are very close to the Later Hosens, but the Hosen have decisive 7-2 Sunday games advantage, including their INDs, BOSs, and DETs - thus it seems the Hosen could win big, if they keep the Negatives down and the PCTs up, as those cats are all fairly close. We think the Hosens will prevail 11-3, though we've underestimated the heart of Les Digits before.

Tsaogrip 0002 trails thenopp at present, but they have a significant 10-3 games advantage tomorrow (including a bevy of Knicks and Bucks). It looks to us that tsaogrip will retake the REB cats and FTM, but lose TO, and win by at least 8-6 (FT% could go either way, as could a DISQ).

Other notes:

Kyle Lowry has started 2 straight in place of Ray Parker Jr.. He hasn't done much with the time, unfortunately, but it might be time to pick him up. Also, Darko seems to be starting over M-Gas all of a sudden, though Marcasol had a great night off the bench. MEM is desperate, clearly. Thenopp owns both Conley and Gasol, and can't be happy about this.

Hakim Warrick has 3 straight 10 point games. I'm not impressed...yet!

Donyell Marshall is alive! After sitting on his pearshaped butt for most of the first quarter of the season, but has played in both of the last two games (with Brand out). 13/5 in 16 minutes tonight, with 3 3s. Not bad!

Mike Beastly only got 13 minutes tonight. Is Joel Anthony really that terrific? (answer: no) It's nice to see Jamaal Magliore and S. Livingston on the floor.

Earl Watson and Good Golly Miss Colly came off the bench tonight and both played well - E-Wat with 12 AST and SNC had 14/8 (Cox was in Foul Trouble).

Marcus Camby! 12/19/7 BLK - pretty impressive. In the fourth Quarter, the Clips had Mardy Collins, Jason Hart, Paul Davis, DeAndre Jordan, and Steve Novak on the floor. Quite a bench.

Another injury to Al Horford = another double double for ZaZa.

The Warriors are a big fat Nellie-shaped mess right now. The Spurs, of all teams, score 100 on them in less than 3 quarters, and were up by 40. S-Jax only played 14 minutes, and C-Maggs shot 1-10 from the field. They both scored 6.

E.T., Go Home!

tsaogrip drops E. Thomas, picks up D. Cook

We've discussed center and poet Etan Thomas here, and DaQueen here.

In the previous post, we thought E.T would produce between 6/6 and 9/9, and, as yet, he's not even close to the lesser of these levels. Rght now he's at 5/4, but that's including his 'impressive' 10/8 first game. Since then, he's only gotten to 6 PTS or REBs just once each. He hasn't been in foul trouble, and yet he's only averaging 15 minutes a game. Presumably he's still recovering his conditioning after missing last year, but the emergence of J. McGee (and the still ineffective presence of the Blatche-Dog) seems also to be conspiring to limit Thomas's minutes.

On the other hand, D. Cook, though not starting for MIA, has been averaging over 25 minutes, and has emerged as a serious source of 3's, hitting 3 or more in his last 4 games. With the Matrix not scoring, and rookies Chalmers and Beasley inconsistent, Cook has become one of the team's best offensive options. Hes also chipping in 4 boards or so. As we mentioned in discussing Chris Quinn, D-Wade's penetrate and dish style can be very good for the numbers of perimeter shooters (Kapono, Damon Jones). Being Wade's backup limits his minutes potential, though Dwyane is nursing a sore ankle, and may very well miss a few games (or be removed early when MIA is getting spanked).

Judgment: 3s are not an area of need for Tsaogrip, while BLK and REBs probably are, but Etan is certainly not getting it done (indeed, DQ is outrebounding him of late!). Thus, we approve.

Yi-Haw! Or, the Stupid and the Beautiful

Some good and some bad this week for the tsaogrip. Failing to set his lineup costs him the win and makes him look like a cat-eating idiot, but 15th-round pick Yi "The Chinese Peja" Jianlian looks set to average a double-double soon, coming on the heels of a monstrous 24/10/4 performance -- with 5 threes! (after hitting a grand total of 6 in all of last season).

Saturday Thoughts

Close matchups abound

Most of this week's matchups are close heading into the final days, though Mongoose appears to be in good shape, due to a surprising 3 techs from odensque, and the Hosen seem to be assured of a victory over the non-lineup-setting Speakers.

The biggest surprise to me is that thenopp is presently ahead of Les Digits, despite Chalmers' 9 steal game and monster lines from Amare. The culprits are: 1) Shaq sitting out, 2) Missing 2 games from Billups due to the trade, and 3) some questionable lineup choices (Stevenson and Conley over an admittedly struggling Deng?). Now injuries have struck (J-Smoove and Tim-Thom), which could also contribute to a disappointing week. The Digits are only down 8-7, but that's while winning all four negs and a pct. They'll need a surge in DREB, FTM, or AST to compete, and thenopp has something of a weekend games advantage.

The other interesting matchup is between Tsaogrip and Nor'Easter. Right now, it stands at 8-6 Nor'Easter. Nor'Easter's PGs have been on a bit of a roller coaster: the Walloon blew up for 55pts, but is now out for two weeks, and Devin Harris poured in 38 last night, but will miss today's game. They cling to a 4 AST advantage, so their absence could be decisive - Nash and Paul are both in action tonight, so watch closely. Redd's absence for tsaogrip has been roughly cancelled out by Maggette's injury on the other side. Almost all the categories are still competitve, so it should be an exciting weekend (provided that Tim sets his lineup).

The Ba-Boone

Sources report the Nets have picked up their option on F Josh Boone, suggesting they, like the Digits, expect great things from him. No doubt they were impressed by his 4-pt, 3-reb performance Wednesday night.

In a related story, one wonders if the Digits aren't in super-secret negotiations with the tsaogripers over Josh Howard, as the Digits looks to put together the first all-Josh lineup.

Wassamatta Yue?

tsaogrip drops Yue, picks up Finley

It's late, so this will be short.

Sun Yue, the 'Chinese Magic Johnson' is a versatile guard known for his playmaking. He apparently missed a chunk of training camp with mono, and that may or may not be related to his lack of PT. Consensus seems to be he's headed to the D-League for a while.

We've discussed Finley quite recently, so no need to repeat what I said there.

Judgment: This is obviously a solid move by tsaogrip, as he's losing nothing, and using his #10 waiver pick also costs nothing. Small gains in PTS and 3s should follow.

Tsaogrip gets in the act

Tsaogrip 0002 drops Jerry Stackhouse for Etan Thomas

Jerry Stackhouse is 34 and in serious decline. It's hard to imagine that he averaged 29.8 PPG in 2000-1. He was down to 10.7 points last year, and seems to have lost the SG job in Dallas to an unholy combination of Brandon Bass and Jason Terry. He seems likely to average 10/2/2 and provide little else (maybe a 3PG).

Etan Thomas is big, has a heart problem, and, with Brendan Haywood out, appears to have the starting C job in Washington, at least until Blatche improves. He's a lock for 6 and 6, and might get that up to 9 and 9, with 1.5 BLK. Moreover, he's written a book of poetry.

Judgment: The increase in rebounds, blocks and FG% is just what the Doctor ordered for Tsaogrip. The loss of Stackhouse will not be felt. As always, though, with any not very good C, FT% will suffer and there's a lot of PF/TECH/DISQ risk.

Weekly Forecast -- Week 1

The Later Hosens vs. tsaogrip 0002

General: The defending champs face a tough matchup in Week 1. 2nd Round pick Danny Granger only plays two games, while tsaogrip has 2 top 4-gaming Bucks in Michael Redd and R-Jeff (though only 2 games from VC and C-Booz). Tsaogrip also has a significant Sunday game advantage.

Injuries: None yet.

Categories:

Tsaogrip should win AST, PTS, FGM, FTM, and FT%

The Hosen should win 3s, DREB, BLK

Toss ups -- OREB, STL, TO, PF, FG%

What to watch for:

(The Hosen's Joakim Noah)

For the Hosen, all eyes will be on the young frontcourt (Oden, Love, Noah) and their minutes. The roles of Russell Westbrook, Nate Robinson, Flip, Marquis, and Marreese will also be under scrutiny. Look for J-Salm and Matt Barnes to light it up, but how much will they contribute outside of points?

As for tsaogrip - he'll be watching the Knicks SFs (Q-Rich and W-Chandler) to see how things shake out, and looking to see how much and how well Yi and Diaw play.

Fearless Prediction: I think the young Hosen will step up on the glass, and win OREBs, but at the expense of the negatives: Final Score tsaogrip 8 - Hosen 6

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Nor'easter vs. Mongoose

General: An intriguing matchup - those of you who read the 'First Look' series know that we thought quite highly of both these teams' drafts. Both teams are huge in the frontcourt. Nor'easter gets 4 games from Bogut, but only 2 from Emeka, DevHarr, and Duncan. Mongoose has 4 from C-Vill, but only 2 from Okur and D-Will; overall, the games situation in general, and on Sunday in particular, is pretty even.

Injuries: Mongoose will be without Martell webster until December, it seems; Deron Williams' appears out for Week 1; if he does play, it could make a big difference. Baron Davis is questionable. Thaddeus Young has a hurt back. Nor'easter is missing Monta Ellis indefinitely.

Categories:

Nor'easter should win AST, FTM, FG%

Mongoose should win TO, PF, FT%, 3s, STL

Toss ups -- OREB, DREB, PTS, BLK, FGM

(Nor'easter's Devin Harris)

What to watch for: Being without D-Will hurts the Goose's chances of winning PTS and FGM. Any Disq's could make a big difference, and with such big-man heavy teams, there will surely be some. The Mongoose will be curious to see Thaddeus Young, Baron Davis in LA, and young Mr. Bynum. Are Tyrus Thomas and Brandon Bass really starting? We'll see. For Nor'easter, the minutes of Jarrett Jack, Al Thornton, Pietrus, and RudyFer are worth monitoring.

Fearless Prediction: Without Williams, and with B-Dizzle 'questionable', Nor'easter will prevail: Final Score Nor'easter 9 - Mongoose 6

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Les Digits vs. play my$hkin flute

General: Unfortunately, I don't think this one will be so close. I think my$hkin just has more minutes on the floor this week. Les Digits has only 2 games from Jamison, Chauncey, J-Smoove, Horford, and T-Murph. That will prove too much to overcome, I suspect, in the counting categories.

Injuries: my$hkin will be without Larry Hughes, and Dunleavy is banged up. Les Digits has no Manu, J-Smoove might be limited, and MarvWill is suspended for the first game of the season.

Categories:

Les Digits should win TO, PF

my$hkin should win PTS, FGM, FTM, FG%, FT%, AST, STL, BLK, 3s

Toss ups -- OREB, DREB

(my$hkin's Chris Duhon)

What to watch for: Les Digits needs to see how the minutes situations of Conley, D-Rose, and Varejao shake out. My$hkin will be looking to see how much run Kelenna, Duhon, Posey, and Mayo get, and how they respond

Fearless Prediction: No doubt about the outcome: Final Score my$hkin 10 - Les Digits 4

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blazers (thenopp) vs. odensque

General: This one should be interesting*. Both teams are more or less at full strength, and thenopp will outscore odensque by quite a bit. However, the big men of odensque (Brand, Dalembert, Big Z) may very well be enough to make this a fight.

*assuming lineups are set

Injuries: thenopp is without Agent Zero for a while, and Carmelo is apparently suspended for the first two games. Odensque will be without the services of Brad Miller, who's suspended for 5 games.

Categories:

thenopp should win PTS, FT, FGM, FT%,

odensque should win OREB, DREB, BLK, STL, TO

Toss ups -- 3s, PF, FG%, AST

(thenopp's Wally Szczerbiak)

What to watch for: odensque is very interested to how see the new look Sixers gel with Brand and Dalembert. He'll need good weeks from preseason disappointments Marion and Moon in order to win blocks, and will be looking carefully at the minutes and play of B-Simmons and Bayless. Thenopp needs to see whether rookies B-Lopez and Marc Gasol will help shore up his thin frontcourt - and whether aging veterans Hill, Mobley, and Szczerbiak can contribute this year.

Fearless Prediction: I think thenopp will win 3s and AST, but either JO or Hinrich will fatally DISQ: Final Score: odensque 8 - thenopp 7

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garbage speakers vs. The Lovin' Spoonful

General: garbage speakers may suffer from C-But, J-Rich, AK-47, and J-Rich only having two games, though the Spoonful also have some key 2-gamers (Bibby, Parker, R. Brewer). I think the Spoonful will outscore the speakers, and win via the counting stats, but the margin of victory will come down to rebounds.

Injuries: Only Francisco Garcia is out for the speakers, though Camby hasn't played in the preseason. On the Spoonful side, Wade and Bosh are forever day to day, and Little K-Mart, Ben Gordon, and Beno are slightly banged up.

(garbage speaker's Kyle Korver)

Categories:

The Lovin' Spoonful should win PTS, FTM, FGM, FT%, AST

garbage speakers should win TO, PF, BLK

Toss ups -- 3s, STL, FG%, OREB, DREB

What to watch for: garbage speakers wants to see Camby and Artest thrive in their new environs, and will be curious about the roles of Terry and Odom. Spencer Hawes might be huge this week with Brad Miller out. The Lovin' Spoonful want to see how much Hakim Warrick plays, how well LaMarcus fits in with Oden, and what's up with supposedly starting Chris Quinn. Starbury's role is also in question, and which Bargnani will show up this year?

Fearless Prediction: Sadly, Hawes will grab a lot of boards (and Carl Landry(?) won't) - Final Score: The Lovin' Spoonful 8 - garbage speakers 6

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The first Waiver Wire pickups will be tonight/tomorrow; I'll be sure to review who did what, and why...

First Look --Tsaogrip 2000

Quick Draft Summary: After whining about having the first pick, and then confidently picking CP3, Tim shored grabbed two solid C's (Al-Jeff, Boozer), then high scoring swingmen (VC, Redd). He then made a number of high-upside picks in the second half (Yi, Q-Rich, W-Chandler, Diaw)

Frontcourt: Al-Jeff (3), C-Booz (2), and Baby Al (8), K-Perk (12), Yi (15)
While Jefferson and Boozer are elite rebounders, they have both missed time in recent years. There's not a lot of rebounding depth on Tsaogrip, however. They've got to hope to get 7/g from Wilson Chandler, Yi and Harrington to compete in REBs. Similarly, in Blocks, Al-Jeff and Perkins should swat, but noone else (aside from perhaps Yi and Chandler) looks to be a blocker. A center from the wire (Etan Thomas?) or trading one of several 'all-rounders' for a solid center, would appear to be a good plan

Backcourt: CP3 (1), DreMil (6), Felton (11), Fish (19)
Chris Paul is very very good, and though this is not the deepest crop of PGs, they should excel in AST and Steals, since a lot of the team's swingmen are likely to contribute (VC, Diaw, Delonte). Fisher is in decline, and Felton has been a disappointment, but could provide value, given where they were picked. Miller should have a fine year. Another problem is that neither Felton nor Miller shoot the 3 much (and Paul only 1/G), so it will take a return to form from Q-Rich, along with solid contributions from Redd and Baby Al for Tsaogrip to be competitive in 3s.

Swingmen: VC (4), Redd (5), Howard(7), R-Jeff(9), Tayshaun(10)
This is the strength of the team. By picking CP 1st, then C's in rounds 2 and 3, Tim was able to take the best available player in rounds 4-10 (perhaps at the expense of depth in the 'specialty' positions, as noted above), and got what looks to be good value (esp. Howard, I think). Obviously, VC is an injury and attitude risk, but can do a lot, and is most certainly the #1 option in NJ. We'll see how R-Jeff and Redd share the load in Milwaukee, but it's likely they'll both produce at te 20/4/3 level. I love Howard, despite his off-court issues, and expect 20/6/2. We shouldn't discount the solid Pct's most of these players provide, with few fouls, and contributions across the stat-sheet.

X-Factors: Q-Rich (17), Wilson Chandler (14), Delonte West (16), Diaw(13)
Chandler's a highly-touted sophomore, and has been compared to Shawn Marion. Tim has smartly hedged by grabbing Q-Rich as well, ensuring he'll have a monopoly on Knicks SF minutes. Diaw, West and Q-Rich have all proven in the past that they can provide top 50 value (or totally suck). Much will hinge on their performance for Tsaogrip, soon to be renamed 'Isiah's Pills'.

Strengths: AST, PTs, FGM, FT%, PF -- a shortage of traditional big men means fewer fouls and better FT%
Weaknesses: Blocks, OREB, DREB, FG%

Best Pick: J-Howard (7th)
Worst Pick: Sun Yue? (18th)