First Look -- Mongoose

Quick Draft Summary: The 'goose went for a number of youngsters, and this years squad will be more big-man heavy than in years past. I think we were all prepared for another 9 PG draft from Mongoose after he picked D-Will and Baron with the 'wheel' picks, but then it was Center madness. Did the 'goose get the balance right? Is the title headed to to Indiana/New Jersey? Read On!

Frontcourt: Bynum (3), Kaman(5), Okur (6), Beasley(7), Scola (13), Tyrus (14)

Bynum will be good, but this seemed (and seems) a reach - a bold move though. Similarly, though Kaman was a beast on the boards last year, one has to think Camby's presence in LA will diminish Kaman's output. Scola and Tyrus may or may not log tons of minutes, but if they do, Mongoose will e just fine in Rebounds and blocks.

Backcourt: D-Will (1), B-Dizzle (2), Rondo (9), Farmar (18), E-Wat (15)

D-Will and Baron are extremely good if healthy, and should be good enough, in conjunction with the bench, to keep Mongoose in the hunt in assists most weeks. Baron and Rajon both provide mad steals, but most of the other 'geese are less interested in defense.

Swingmen: Gay (4), S-Jax (8), Villanueva (10)

Gay was a steal here - he'll provide 2nd round value without question. He may prove to be the best player on the team. There's talk of playing S-Jax as a 'point forward' which may make him more well rounded as a fantasy player. C-Vill is very tall and hits 3s, which renders him very exciting to us, but he hasn't put it together for a full season yet. I've seen some folks very high on him, and production from him could make a big difference.

X-Factors: JR Smith (12), Thaddeus Young (11), Brandon Bass (16)

Mongoose is very well balanced, and just needs a couple folks to up their production in order to make a run into the playoffs. Presumably some of the youngsters will make that leap (though others may fade away). Many are quite high all three of these folks, in particular on Thaddeus (I don't know anything about him, to be honest). If any of these late rounders steps up in a serious way, and the health concerns of the early draftees don't become issues, I predict a fine year for Mongoose.

Strengths: BLK, AST, REB, FG%

Weaknesses: PTS, STL, FTM, PTS

Best Pick: S-Jax (8) - at worst, he's a sixth round value, and could be even better if they play him at 'Point Forward'

Worst Pick: Beasley (7) - too early for a rookie, I think, or Bynum (3)

First Look -- The Later Hosens

Quick Draft Summary: The reigning (and only 3-time) champs landed KG with the 9th overall pick, then went with up and coming Danny Granger in the second, getting a lot of production in every category; however, solid value picks in the early rounds may have left the champs thin up the middle.

Frontcourt: Garnett (1), D-West (3) Oden (6), Kevin Love (9), Noah (11), Haslem (14)

Garnett and West are both terrific 20/10 types with fine %s. Haslem should be good for a double double. I'm really not sure what to expect from Oden, Love or Noah, but I'm not convinced there's enough here to compete in rebounds or blocks.

Backcourt: T-Mac (5), TJ Ford (8), Rafer (12), R Westbrook (15), Nate-Rob (16)

T-Mac had a nice comeback season last year and, health permitting, should continue to generate numbers in PTS, 3s, AST, and REBs. His STL days are done, and his percentages are getting worse, however. Ford and Rafer should generate a lot of assists and steals, but are prone to hurt in FG%, and are prone to hurt in general. Westbrook's a bit of a wild-card, though he should be productive, for some of the year, and I think Nate Rob will be great this year, but that might just mean more 3s and PTS.

Swingmen: Granger (2), Pierce (4), Peja (7), Salmons (10)

The trick with taking Garnett early is you have to make up for his lack (relative to other 1st rounders) of points later on in the draft. The Hosen are trying to make it up with these guys. If Pierce or Peja can get back up to 20PPG, it would go a long way to making that happen. However, neither is likely to carry the load as they've been asked to in the past, and a point increase may not be in the cards. I have nothing to say about J-Salm, except that he's solid - I love the pick.

X-Factors: Barnes (13), Finley (18)

These two should contribute 1.5 3s each at a minimum, which along with T-Mac, Granger, Pierce, and Rafer, should give the Hosens a real strength with the 3-ball.

Strengths: 3s, Ast, FT%, PF

Weaknesses: REB, BLK, FG%, PTS

Best Pick: Peja (7) - Good value here

Worst Pick: I was going to say Love (9), but there really weren't good alternatives. Maybe Oden, just becuase there were good alternatives...

First Look -- The Lovin' Spoonful

 

Quick Draft Summary: After starting with Wade and Bosh, the Spoonful, went, in turn, for two scorers, two centers, a mess of crappy PGs, and complete chaos at the end. The result is a lot of Points and Steals, decent Reb and Assists, with typical deficiencies in Blocks and 3s

Frontcourt: Bosh (2), LaMarcus (5), D-Lee (6), Gooden (12), Bargnani (14)

Questions abound about Bosh's injury status and how he'll fit with Jermaine, and also with LaMarcus and Oden. Gooden and Lee should be solid double doubles. Bargnani is a question mark, but even if he's good he doesn't rebound. I think another 10RPG man is necessary to compete in rebs, as my swingmen do not contribute much. No true shotblockers, though, which spells 'crappy C's on waivers' in the Spoonful future.

Backcourt: Wade (1), Bibby (7), Parker (8), Udrih (11), Ridnour (16)

There are more health risks here, and precious few 3 pointers. If Ridnour keeps his job, there should be enough assists and steals (with R-Brewer pitching in there).

Swingmen: Little K-Mart (3), Durant (4), R.Brewer (10)

Brewer could take a big step forward and score more to go with his great %s and STLs (though still no 3s). Martin's really a pure scorer, but with fine %s and low negatives. Durant adds rebounding, and both a steal and block per game, and may get even better.

X-Factors: Ben Gordon (9), Warrick (13), Stuckey (15), A. Johnson (17), Marbury (18)

To have any hope of competing in the big man cats, the Spoonful needs Warrick to play and pull down rebounds, and needs Johnson to start and get a lot of blocks (and for neither of them to DISQ as much as usual). Ben Gordon's role is uncertain, but he should produce a mess of 3s, which is of course the point. Stuckey's really just a scorer, as far as I know,but should contribute in assists, if they give him minutes. Starbury's a huge question, but he can still (sometimes) play, and his 3s would be welcome.

Strengths: PTS, AST, STL, FGM, FTM, FT%

Weaknesses: DREB, 3s, BLK, TO

Best Pick: Bibby (7) - I think he'll return to 2005-6 form  and get 18/5 w/2 3's and good %s

Worst Pick: Lee (6) - should have taken a PG (Harris, A.Miller) or a shot blocker (Emeka, G-Wallace)

First Look -- odensque

Quick Draft Summary: Another strange draft for Owen -- he largely went for big men early, with some key all-rounders (Marion/Lewis). It looks like there's not enough production on the bench without some improvements, but a lack of minutes may keep the negatives low, Lil Dogger style.

Frontcourt: Brand (1), Sheed (5), B-Miller (7), Dalembert (8), Big Z (10)

There's a lot of Blocks here (and the Matrix adds more still), and pretty good rebounding. This may be the year when Sheed, B-Mill, and the Big Z decline precipitously, however, and Brand is coming off a serious injuy. Also, no one knows if the Haitian Sensation will fit in with Brand or not.

Backcourt: Calderon (4), Mo Williams (6), Bayless (15)

Some think Calderon will put up Nash-like numbers this year, and he might. Even so, that will likely not be enough to get Odensque in contention for assists or steals most weeks, unless, of course Bayless turns out to be an assist machine (which seems unlikely).

Swingmen: Marion (2), Rashard (3), Rip (9), Battier (11), Raja Bell (14)

Many expect a decline from Marion in Miami, and Rashard didn't produce as well in ORL as he had as a Sonic. Rip is no longer a 20PPG player (maybe no one on this team is, except perhaps Brand). Battier now has Artest ahead of him, but he and Raja still will hit plenty of 3's with low negatives.

X-Factors: Bobby Simmons (16), Jamario Moon (12), Ben Wallace (17), T-Out (13)

Simmons, Moon, and Outlaw all have high multi-cat upside, but have question marks as well. Big Ben is probably just dead weight, but we all have fond memories of crazy 7 block, 5 steal games - maybe there are a few more left.

Strengths: 3s, BLK, TO, REB, FT%

Weaknesses: PTS, FT, FGM, FG%, AST

Best Pick: Outlaw (13) - he's going to force his way onto the court

Worst Pick: Sheed (5) In our league, 'Sheed's negatives (esp. Techs) should push him down a few rounds

First Look -- nor'Easter

Quick Draft Summary: Nor'Easter went big - real big - taking 4 top centers and 4 more towards the end of the draft. But he wisely complemented this with strong PGs and solid scorers. At this early juncture, this is the team to beat. Nice work, Joel

Frontcourt: Dwight Howard (1), Duncan (3), Okafor (7), Bogut (8)

That's a lot of missed free throws, but that's really the only downside here. No team can compete with Nor'Easter in either of the REB categories or BLK. FG% is probably in the bag as well. Thus, every week starts with a 4-1 lead, which will be hard to overcome. Especially since these C's get the line a lot, and should help (with Maggs and J-John) to provide a FTM advantage as well.

Backcourt: Nash (2), Harris (6), Foye (9), Nelson(10), Jack (19)

Nash is aging, but should still put up 10 APG, Foye and Nelson were very disappointing last year, Jack may not play much behind TJ Ford (especially if the Pacers have to play Tinsley), but is helpful if he gets minutes. If Harris is as good as expected, these PGs will keep Nor'Easter competitive in AST and make them very hard to beat indeed.

Swingmen: Joe Johnson (4), Maggette (5)

These guys should be very helpful - together with the C's they should get FTM, and provide enough points and FGs to compete. However, the team is basically punting 3s, as far as I can see.

X-Factors: Maxiell (16), Blatche (18), Monta Ellis (12) Al Thornton (11), Pietrus (14), RudyFern (13)

Maxiell, Thornton, and Blatche wlll surely break out sometime, but is this the year? Monta's injury is serious and we don't know how effective he will be upon his return. Pietrus could surprise now on a new team and finally live up to his promise. No one knows what Rudy will do, but everyone agrees he's badass.

Strengths: REB, BLK, FTM, FGM, FG%

Weaknesses: FT%, 3s, STL, TO, PF

Best Pick: Louis Williams (15) - I love Louis (I also love Pietrus!)

Worst Pick: Jeff Foster (17) - good value, but unnecessary on this team

First Look -- my$hkin

Quick Draft Summary: My$hkin grabbed C's (or near C's) in Pau and Dirk early, and a solid PG in AI, then went for shooters and value. The lower half of his draft has a lot of upside. 3 Nuggets may not be enough!

Frontcourt: Dirk (1), Pau (3), T-Chand (8), Nene (10), K-Mart (12), Wilcox (14), Millsap (15)

A lot depends on the health of Nene and K-Mart, and that's not a good sign. Really, only Pau and T-Chand are likely to get 10 RPG (Dirk might be close). I fear there's not enough depth to be a rebounding force unless everyone listed really steps up -- I'm more optimistic about the blocks, however, and about FG%. Dirk's excellent FT% (and qty) should more than cancel out T-Chand's futility from the stripe.

Backcourt: AI (2), Leandro (9), Duhon (14)

Really only AI, A-Ig, and DuDu are likely to hit 5 APG, which is worrisome. Luckily, Dunleavy and Wallace will chip in some, but more PG depth will be required to compete in AST. Steals, on the other hand will be in the bag most weeks, as G-Wall, AI, A-Ig, and even Larry Hughes are among the best thieves out there. We shouldn' forget just how often AI still gets to the line. What's less clear is DuDu's role, and whether he'll be any good even if he plays -- he certainly hasn't been effective in Chicago.

Swingmen: A-Ig (3), Dunleavy (5), G-Wallace (6), Allen(7)

Plenty of points here, and 3s from Dunleavy ad Allen (and Barbosa, of course). I think FTM, FGM and PTS will usually be in my$hkin' s column. Wallace carries some risk, of course, and Allen is declining, but I think these were superb value picks. Dunleavy's coming off a career year, but I don't see any reason he can't do it again.

X-Factors: OJ Mayo (11), Larry Hughes (20), Azubuike (18), Ariza (17), Posey (16)

Mayo could really help the my$hkin backcourt if he performs. Hughes can still produce (and steal!) when healthy. Kelenna, T-Ariz, and Posey may all see more opportunity than last year, and could put up useful across the board numbers.

Strengths: 3s, STL, FT, FG%, TO, PTS, FG

Weaknesses: REB, BLK, AST

Best Pick: A-Ig (4) -- Iggy Hop is very solid, and may be a steal here. I also like the T-Chand (8), Allen (7), and Kelenna (18) picks

Worst Pick: Millsap (15) - he's got talent, but unless Boozer goes down again, I'm not sure he's going to play much.

First Look -- garbage speakers

Quick Draft Summary: Autodrafting got the speakers some good values, but no point guards. With a number of all-round contibutors, however, the speakers look well balanced, if rich in question marks.

Frontcourt: Camby (3), Odom (6), Biedrins (7), Kirilenko (8), Hawes (16), McDyess (17)

If Camby stays healthy and dominant, then the rest of these guys can make the speakers competitive in the big-man categories, perhaps even dominant in blocks. These are not big point scorers, however, so LeBron and the other SFs will be counted on for scoring. I'm not sure it will be enough.

Backcourt: Marcus Wiliams (13), Ramon Sessions (15), Antonio Daniels (19)

Well, luckily LeBron provides plenty of assists, and C-But is a steal machine (as might Artest be), because this is a bad scene, PG wise. M-Will may start, but is apparently in Don Nelson's doghouse after a terrible preseason. Sessions appears not to be starting...or backing up. Daniels will be solid while Arenas is out, but by no means spectacular.

Swingmen: LeBron(1), C-But(2), J-Rich(3)

The speakers were one of two teams not to draft a PG or C in the first 3 rounds, and these are indeed three outstanding players. They contribute all around, but as noted above, they may be the only players to average > 16 PPG on the team (depending on the 'X-Factors' below)

X-Factors: Artest(5), Korver(20), Terry(9)

Artest is the ultimate X-Factor, and could, as always, provide first round value, or retire to pursue his rap career. Korver's getting no love this pre-season, but might give quite a boost in 3s. Jason Terry is extremely productive, but is seemingly always in danger of losing minutes. Other sources of uncertainty include Odom, who is supposedly coming off the bench, and Camby, who is on a new(old) team, and 'day to day'.

Gomes(12), Parker(11), Nocioni(18) and Green(14) could all be boom or bust as well.

Strengths: 3s, STL, BLK

Weaknesses: FGM, PTS, FT%

Best Pick: Daniels (19) -- much needed PG help came late. I also like Hawes (16)

Worst Pick: Garcia (10) -- he's hurt, and there were plenty of similar players available later.

First Look -- thenopp

Quick Draft Summary: What's not to like? Starting with Kobe, thenopp took a lot of big name, big-time scorers. A lot of veterans means a lot of injury risk, but todd has benefited from such risky behavior in the past...

Frontcourt: Yao (2), JamsO'Neal (7), Z-Bo (9),

Color me unconvinced. While extraordinarily talented, Yao has not proven durable, and seems likely, especially after the olympics, to miss some time this year. Jermaine might benefit from a change of scene, but he's missed quite a bit of time as well. Z-Bo too will likely miss 10 games or so, though he still can rebound mightily. The two rookies (Marc Gasol and Brook Lopez) may contribute, but might very well struggle. A lack of frontcourt depth is compounded by a glut of non-rebounding SG types (though Kidd will help).I suspect thenopp will fail to compete in Rebounds and BLK most weeks.

Backcourt: Kidd (4), Arenas(10), Hinrich (11), Boobie Gibson (18)

If Kidd is his usual self, and Hinrich holds off Derrick Rose, and Arenas comes back healthy, there just might be enough AST here to compete. Steals? I'm not so sure.

Swingmen: Kobe (1), Carmelo (3), Turkoglu (5), Miller (6), JamsCraw(8), Hill (12), McCants (14), Kleiza (15), Mobley (16), Szczerbiak (20)

Kobe and Carmelo are terrific and thenopp should have no trouble scoring, and thoroughly dominating 3s, with this firepower. What's interesting is that usually the 3point dominant teams are also low TO, in the little doggers style, but thenopp has some TO machines (Kobe, Kidd, Yao, Carmelo, Crawford, Hinrich). We'll see how it balances out. I suspect thenopp will trade some 3s for either PG or C depth.

X-Factors: Brook Lopez (13), Marc Gasol(17)

Mostly this team consists of known, if declining quantities. The two rookie big men need to step up to give thenopp some depth in the middle. Obviously, Arenas's return, and the health and/or decline of Kidd/O'Neal/Mike Miller will be crucial to thenopp's success

Strengths: 3s, FGM, PTS, FTM, FT%

Weaknesses: FG%, STL, BLK

Best Pick: Kidd (4) - todd knows how to use Kidd's strengths and compensate for his weaknesses - he should provide good value here.

Worst Pick: Jermaine (7) - a number of better C's were available at at this point

First Look -- Les Digits

 

Quick Draft Summary: Josh went with a C/PG 1-2 punch, then filled out with solid swingmen, and as is his custom took risks on youth in the second half of the draft.

Frontcourt: Amare (2), Horford (7), T-Murph(9), Collison (13), Shaq (15)
It's hard to pass on BronBron, but Amare is a terrific player when healthy. His Yao-like FT% sets him apart from the other top C's, and he should be a solid anchor of the team, despite health risks and some questions about the new-look Suns. Horford, Murphy, and SweetNickyC could easily average double-doubles, and Shaq and Varejao (depending on minutes) should give this team plenty of rebounding. J-Smoove and Jamison pull down mad boards as well...They look to be competitive in Blocks, if not dominant, as Amare and J-Smoove are elite blockers, and Horford and Shaq should contribute. There's not a ton of blocking depth, however. I think there are questions about how much Shaq plays and how much he drags down Les Digit's FT%. Also, Shaq, Murphy, Amare, and Collison (and J-Smoove) are very Tech and Disq prone, which could have an impact in some close weeks.

Backcourt: Billups (2), B-Roy (5), D-Rose (10), Conley (14), Chalmers (19)

Chauncey's probably good for 17 and 7 again, with excellent FT% and some 3s (though as a Stuckey owner I confess to hoping for some decline), but I'm not so sure about the rest of Les Digits PG corps. B-Roy is fantastic, of course, but I wonder if his assist numbers will drop as he handles the ball less. D-Rose looked fantastic in the preseason, but rookie PGs are hard to rely on. I'm not optimistic that Les Digits will be competitive in Assists or Steals, especially given that Assisting is among the few things at which Amare, J-Smoove, and Jamison do not excel.

Swingmen: J-Smoove (3), Jamison (4), Deng (8), Marvin (11)

Smith could be quite a value early in the third, and Jamison has quietly become a fantasy force in the last few years. There's good balance here, as Jamison provides 3s and rebounds, Smoove blocks and steals, while Deng pitches in various cats while scoring quite a bit. My only concern is that the team as a whole might not generate enough raw points and FGs. It appears to me that someone - perhaps Deng or MarvWill, needs to step up his output to the 22PPG level, at least until Manu returns.

X-Factors: Manu (6), Ricky Buckets (12), Boone (16), Varejao (18)

I like all these guys this year, but they are all risky. Manu may be out until 2009, and Boone has an irregular heartbeat. Varejao (a rebounding beast) is still behind Ben Wallace and the Big Z for minutes, though that will likely change in a few months. Ricky fills the stat sheet, but looks to be behind Cat Mobley or Al Thornton, and has high TO/Tech downside. 

Strengths: DREB, FG%, 3s, TO -- fewer PGs means fewer TOs
Weaknesses: AST, TECH, DISQ, STL

Best Pick: Luol "The Girls I've Loved Before" Deng (8). No 3's, but he's poised for a comeback year
Worst Pick: Manu(6) -- Injured, unfortunately - could have grabbed him several rounds later.

First Look --Tsaogrip 2000

Quick Draft Summary: After whining about having the first pick, and then confidently picking CP3, Tim shored grabbed two solid C's (Al-Jeff, Boozer), then high scoring swingmen (VC, Redd). He then made a number of high-upside picks in the second half (Yi, Q-Rich, W-Chandler, Diaw)

Frontcourt: Al-Jeff (3), C-Booz (2), and Baby Al (8), K-Perk (12), Yi (15)
While Jefferson and Boozer are elite rebounders, they have both missed time in recent years. There's not a lot of rebounding depth on Tsaogrip, however. They've got to hope to get 7/g from Wilson Chandler, Yi and Harrington to compete in REBs. Similarly, in Blocks, Al-Jeff and Perkins should swat, but noone else (aside from perhaps Yi and Chandler) looks to be a blocker. A center from the wire (Etan Thomas?) or trading one of several 'all-rounders' for a solid center, would appear to be a good plan

Backcourt: CP3 (1), DreMil (6), Felton (11), Fish (19)
Chris Paul is very very good, and though this is not the deepest crop of PGs, they should excel in AST and Steals, since a lot of the team's swingmen are likely to contribute (VC, Diaw, Delonte). Fisher is in decline, and Felton has been a disappointment, but could provide value, given where they were picked. Miller should have a fine year. Another problem is that neither Felton nor Miller shoot the 3 much (and Paul only 1/G), so it will take a return to form from Q-Rich, along with solid contributions from Redd and Baby Al for Tsaogrip to be competitive in 3s.

Swingmen: VC (4), Redd (5), Howard(7), R-Jeff(9), Tayshaun(10)
This is the strength of the team. By picking CP 1st, then C's in rounds 2 and 3, Tim was able to take the best available player in rounds 4-10 (perhaps at the expense of depth in the 'specialty' positions, as noted above), and got what looks to be good value (esp. Howard, I think). Obviously, VC is an injury and attitude risk, but can do a lot, and is most certainly the #1 option in NJ. We'll see how R-Jeff and Redd share the load in Milwaukee, but it's likely they'll both produce at te 20/4/3 level. I love Howard, despite his off-court issues, and expect 20/6/2. We shouldn't discount the solid Pct's most of these players provide, with few fouls, and contributions across the stat-sheet.

X-Factors: Q-Rich (17), Wilson Chandler (14), Delonte West (16), Diaw(13)
Chandler's a highly-touted sophomore, and has been compared to Shawn Marion. Tim has smartly hedged by grabbing Q-Rich as well, ensuring he'll have a monopoly on Knicks SF minutes. Diaw, West and Q-Rich have all proven in the past that they can provide top 50 value (or totally suck). Much will hinge on their performance for Tsaogrip, soon to be renamed 'Isiah's Pills'.

Strengths: AST, PTs, FGM, FT%, PF -- a shortage of traditional big men means fewer fouls and better FT%
Weaknesses: Blocks, OREB, DREB, FG%

Best Pick: J-Howard (7th)
Worst Pick: Sun Yue? (18th)