Saturday, October 25, 2008

First Look -- The Later Hosens

Pierce and Garnett

Quick Draft Summary: The reigning (and only 3-time) champs landed KG with the 9th overall pick, then went with up and coming Danny Granger in the second, getting a lot of production in every category; however, solid value picks in the early rounds may have left the champs thin up the middle.

Frontcourt: Garnett (1), D-West (3) Oden (6), Kevin Love (9), Noah (11), Haslem (14)

Garnett and West are both terrific 20/10 types with fine %s. Haslem should be good for a double double. I'm really not sure what to expect from Oden, Love or Noah, but I'm not convinced there's enough here to compete in rebounds or blocks.

Backcourt: T-Mac (5), TJ Ford (8), Rafer (12), R Westbrook (15), Nate-Rob (16)

T-Mac had a nice comeback season last year and, health permitting, should continue to generate numbers in PTS, 3s, AST, and REBs. His STL days are done, and his percentages are getting worse, however. Ford and Rafer should generate a lot of assists and steals, but are prone to hurt in FG%, and are prone to hurt in general. Westbrook's a bit of a wild-card, though he should be productive, for some of the year, and I think Nate Rob will be great this year, but that might just mean more 3s and PTS.

Swingmen: Granger (2), Pierce (4), Peja (7), Salmons (10)

The trick with taking Garnett early is you have to make up for his lack (relative to other 1st rounders) of points later on in the draft. The Hosen are trying to make it up with these guys. If Pierce or Peja can get back up to 20PPG, it would go a long way to making that happen. However, neither is likely to carry the load as they've been asked to in the past, and a point increase may not be in the cards. I have nothing to say about J-Salm, except that he's solid - I love the pick.

X-Factors: Barnes (13), Finley (18)

These two should contribute 1.5 3s each at a minimum, which along with T-Mac, Granger, Pierce, and Rafer, should give the Hosens a real strength with the 3-ball.

Strengths: 3s, Ast, FT%, PF

Weaknesses: REB, BLK, FG%, PTS

Best Pick: Peja (7) - Good value here

Worst Pick: I was going to say Love (9), but there really weren't good alternatives. Maybe Oden, just becuase there were good alternatives...

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