'Nilla Gorilla

Odensque claims Thrilla, drops anderson

my$hkin dropped Joel Przyzbilla recently, and he continues to play quite well, even in a bench role (11/11 with 2 BLK last night).

Rookie Ryan Anderson, discussed here, just hasn't done much - he's getting maybe 18 minutes a night, and does hit the occasional 3, but isn't scoring or rebounding enough to justify a roster spot.

Judgment: This is a move we can get behind - we were somewhat shocked that the Vanilla Gorilla was shown the door so unceremoniously by P.M.P., and Joel's BLK/OREB combo should fit well with odensque's team style.

Next up, Uncle Cliffy

odensque drops Joe Smith, picks up Donyell

Well, there's no question that dropping Joe Smith is the right call. We've discussed him before, and he's gotten no younger, or better, since. Nor has he gotten much in the way of opportunity of late, as both 'Cox and Colly have been productiv-ish of late. Odensque picked him up after his 2 double-digit games on the 10th and 12th of November. He's hit 10 pts just twice since then. He's was still getting minutes until OKC's last two games, where he's been DNP-CD'ed.

Somehow, in replacing #1 Joe, odensque found someone older - pear-shaped stalwart Donyell Marshall. Donyell was drafted out of UConn the year before Smith (1994). For a while in the early years of the century, he was like a Squat Shawn Marion: averaging a 3, a steal, and a block per game. In 2003-04, he put up an impressive 16/10 with 2 3s and a steal and a block. Very impressive fantasy stuff. He's only played in 4 games this year - but he has played 14 minutes in the last two games, thanks to Elton Brand's injury, scoring 13, with 3 3s and 5 rebounds on Saturday. Elton looks like he'll be back soon, and Donyell should revert to having no value.

Judgment: Frankly, this is a bit of a disaster. We love Donyell (and even remember his brother Donny fondly), but we just don't see him being productive for long (though he may be the 5th best player on the 76ers) - though we wouldn't put anything past a desperate-to-save-his-job Mo Cheeks. Dropping Joe Smith is a no brainer, but there are many better options available in the FAP. Fun fact: these two were sort of traded for each other in the 3-team Ben Wallace/Larry Hughes deal last year.

A Shot in the Darko

odensque drops Milicic, acquires Chris Quinn

Darko rivals Kwame for super-bust status, and while occasionally it seems like he might put it all together, the sudden emergence of Marc Gasol makes it look like this won't be his year. Odensque's dropping him on the heels of dropping Jaric means the end of the Marko-Darko era. A shame, really. This is Darko's sixth year, and he's really not improving much - 4/4 in 15 minutes a night, and he's not even blocking shots (only 3 so far). He has more PFs than FGs, which is never a good sign.

We've discussed Quinn a number of times - he's still good for about 10 points and 2 3s with low negatives and an AST/STL or two.

Judgment: A fine move - Quinn gets good minutes and is quietly productive. Darko's tall.

Brevin Knight is injured

odensque nonetheless picks him up

Bobby Simmons was a very good all-rounder in 2004-5 (16/6/3), and was OK in 2005-6 (13/4/2), but missed all of 06-7 with injury, and never got it going in 07-08. He's not getting it going in 08--09 eithher, thus far. He's shooting 34%, averaging 6/3/1 in 25 MPG (more TOs than AST thus far). He's still holding on to the starting SF job, but that seems tenuous given his lackluster production.

Brevin 'The Very Dark' Knight was also good in 2004-5 (10/3/9 with 2 STL) and again in 2005-06 (13/3/9 w/2 STL), but injuries and and age have slowed him considerably. Last year he managed just 5/2/4 in 22 MPG for the Clips. So far this season, even with D-Williams mostly sidelined in Utah, he's only claimed 20 MPG, and produced at a 6/2/5 clip. He's only 5'10", and never shoots 3s - we watched him play last week, and he doesn't seem to be driving to the hoop anymore. He'd still be a useful source of AST and STL, except that he's apparently hurt, and missed tonight's game.

Judgment: We're not thrilled about this move. Knight has his (limited) uses, but not when injured (and it's not like anyone was going to snap him up). We always liked B-Simm, but he's probably not worth owning until his shots start dropping (if they ever do).

Dixon not the Juan

odensque drops Dixon, picks up R. Anderson

 

Recently picked up Juan Dixon, discussed here, has been very ineffective (2 points in 15 minutes tonight), despite starting 4 of his last 6 games.

Ryan Anderson is an interesting prospect. He's a big, white PF/C type in his first year out of Cal. The exciting part is that he's shown good range and can hit 3-pointers (10 for 16 from 3 thus far). He's getting pretty limited minutes overall, but he had two very nice games (admittedly against the defensively challenged Hawks) last week, averaging 16/5 and 3 3s. He came back to earth on Tuesday ( 2 pts, 3 reb), but still got 17 minutes. His minutes prospects are unclear: the Ba-Boone is still out, but word is that Yi is hurt.

Judgment: We like this pickup - Anderson was certainly on the collective radar, as the 3 shooting big man, though often the bees in ones pants, is nonetheless a scarce commodity. Dixon isn't getting much done, in any event.

Saturday Thoughts -- Week 3

More close matchups this week - thenopp and Spoonful are tied at 6, Les Digits lead odensque 8-7, and the Hosens lead my$hkin 8-6. As we predicted, tsaogrip is crushing Mongoose 10-5 (including an almost 300 PT lead), and Nor'Easter is comfortably ahead of the non-lineup-setting speakers, 9-5.

Sunday games:

Team	Games
Spoonful	8
thenopp	12
odensque	8
Digits	5
Hosens	6
flute	8
Nor'easter	7
speakers	1
tsaogrip	8
Mongoose	3

 

The biggest game advantages in competitive matchupes belong to thenopp (4) and to odensque (3). This could be trouble for odensque, as he might lose PFs (currently ahead by 5), and only has an outside shot at STL (down by 6). It's likely, though, that it will end 8-7 Digits.

Things look much better for thenopp, with all 12 players in action, including Kidd, Carmelo, JamsCraw, and Z-Bo. PTS are currently tied, but we'd have to give the edge to thenopp, based on the games. Thenopp's ahead by 8 FTs, 2 3s, and 9 OREB, and is only behind in FGM by 5, AST by 11, and BLK by 3. The Spoonful might lose all of these and be shamefully bested 9-5. The loss of little K-Mart and games deficits on both Thursday and Sunday have been difficult to overcome.

The Hosen's/my$hkin matchup.is quite interesting: the Hosen lead FGM by 15, AST by 14, and BLK by 11, and trail in PTS by only 6, and OREBs by 3. But the Hosen lead both %s by razor-thin margins (.004 in FG%, .001 in FT%). While it's only an 8-6 games advantage for my$hkin, it seems my$hkin has higher quality games: AI, Dirk, G-Wallace, Nene, versus the Hosens' Salmons, Haslem, Telfair, Love, Kwame, and Nate. We think this gives my$hkin the edge, though PCTs are, in particular, tricky to predict.(Note: we're assuming that Barnes and Barbosa are both out for PHX.)

Heist! - Trade Accepted

big man to odensque, big talent to Hosen in trade

The trade: 'Sheed, Rip, Mo-Will for Oden, Peja, and Marquis.

'Sheed's been a fantasy force for years, and is having a fantastic year so far. He's averaging 14 points and 10 rebounds, 2 blocks, 2 3s, and a steal. He's double/doubling in half his games, and went off for 25 and 13 just last night. This represents an uptick of numbers across the board, compared to the previous few seasons (indeed, more MPG than at any time since he was in PDX), and may be unsustainable, but 'Sheed's block/3 numbers make him a true fantasy elite. He's 34, and is prone to TECHs, of course, and even suspensions, which can hurt in our format, though he's much less prone to TOs and PFs than you might think. He's surely good for 13/7 with a 1.5 3s and Blocks, and may surpass that. We're surprised that odensque would part with him, as he seems an essential component of the low-neg/block/3 strategy they've employed with great success thus far.

Rip is no spring chicken himself (he's 30), but despite some initial concerns about his role with AI's arrival, his stats are right ni line with his career norms. Indeed, Rip's one of the most bankable commodities in fantasy hoops: rarely injured, 17/4/4 with a 3 and good %s. There's nothing else to say, because he's rock solid.

Mo-Will landed on CLE in the offseason, and seemed to have some trouble adjusting to playing with LeBronda. His numbers are down slightly across the board, but he's still a solid play at 15/2/5 with a 3 and a STL. If he can get that up to his standard for the last couple years - 17/4/6 - he's a top 10 PG, but even if not, he's a stong contributor.

So the Hosen get 3 extremely consistent, proven contributors. All probably offer top 75-type value. In total, conservatively, 50PPG, 4.5 3s, 15REB, 3stl, 3blk. A good haul!

Greg Oden needs no introduction. He's still working his way back from injury, and playing about 25 MPG. Though we admit calling him 'The Black Joakim Noah' yesterday afternoon, in reference to his lack of productivity (3/2 in his first game back), after watching him abuse Tyson Chandler last night (11/11/4 BLK in only 24 minutes), we're now sold. Dude is Beast. Even so, he's sure to miss some games with injury, will likely frequently get in foul trouble, and doesn't have a particularly varied or developed offensive game. If he averaged 12/12, it would be a smashing success. Then again, he's the best center prospect since Shaq, looks amazing, and could do better than that. Certainly the blocks will come in bunches.

Peja's 31, and certainly on the downside of his career, though teaming with CP3 and D-West has given him a lot of open looks. He came back well last year (16/4, 3 3s) from a devastating 2006-7 back injury (13 games, much to the Manute Bol's dismay, as they drafted him in the 4th round). This year, he's started off quite slowly (only 13/4, shooting an uncharacteristically low 38% from the field and a shocking 82% from the line). As he plays more and more of a perimeter game, he's gone from 'very few blocks and steals' to virtually none, and since he never drives to the hoop, his (usually) terrific FG% (lifetime 90%) is barely an asset. Still 3 3s a game is nothing to sneeze at.

Marquis Daniels has always been a bit of a mystery. He was a key late-season addition to the Spoonful's great championship team in 2003, when Daniels was an undrafted rookie out of Auburn. He was really quite amazing, outshining Nash, Dirk, Jamison, and Finley with lines like 30/8/7 and 4 steals. But then his career was derailed by nagging injuries, occasional laziness, and a lack of a consistent role. Even with occasional bursts of opportunity on a perpetually injured Pacer team, he's never been able to seize minutes with strong play. Until this year! The lingering injury to Mike Dunleavy has given Marquis a starting role, and he's been a revelation: 15/7/3 with an STL. He's a bit fouly, and doesn't shoot the 3 well, but has been a solid contributor otherwise. He certainly has the talent to sustain that level of play, but will he have the opportunity. No one knows what Dunleavy's timetable is, or what Marquis's role will be when Mike D returns.

So odensque gets intriguing question marks in Oden and Daniels, and a struggling, one-dimensional (though still very good) Peja in the deal. In summary, odensque gave up a great deal of solid goodness for some extremely injury-prone unknown quantities. I have trouble seeing how odensque benefits here. Marquis is unlikely to be as good all-round as Rip, even if somehow he gets the minutes; Mo-Will's assists and steals probably are even with Peja's 3's, and the points and rebs cancel, so let's call that a wash; so unless Oden is somehow better than 'Sheed the rest of the way, this looks like a clear win for the Hosen. They should gain 7PPG,  8 or 9 APG, 1 SPG, and some FG%, in exchange for 2 or 3 OREBs. And let's face it: as cool as Oden is, Rasheed's the coolest evah!

Judgment: Fleecing! Honestly, we think this turns the Hosen into a contender.

If I were Jaric Man

odensque drops Jaric, bayless, picks up Dixon, smith

Odensque has clearly been reading the blog! Our Weekly Recaps have assailed the choice to keep this dead weight on the bench, and the Hosen's FAP post mentioned both Dixon and Smith as possible pickups. Perhaps odensque (aka 'cleanjeans') will grace us with his unique perspective on the game in future comments and posts.

Marko Jaric once oozed with multi-cat potential as the Clippers very tall PG of the future - he was going to be a Slavic Scotty Pippen. In '04-05, he averaged 10/3/6 with 1.7 SPG and a 3PG. But he's slow, and never really learned to shoot, and he got hurt a lot, and it just never happened. Now he's buried behind Mayo, Lowry, Conley, and probably Quinton Ross, and isn't likely to make an impact. Even in 30 MPG last year, he averaged a paltry 8/3/4 (which was his best season since '04-05). On the bright side, his fetching mustache led to an engagement to Victoria's Secret model Adriana Lima.

Jarryd Bayless was Portland's first round draft pick this year (actually acquired in a draft-day trade), but was surprisingly raw in the summer league, and has barely gotten off the pine thus far. With Blake and B-Roy playing well, and Sergio more than capable off the bench, it's hard to see him, especially as a shooter rather than a ballhandling PG-type, getting much PT on a team struggling to apportion minutes to their talent (a problem which will be exacerbated by Oden's impending, and Martell's eventual, return to the court).

Juan Dixon was really good in college (University of Maryland); in the pros, he's always been a bit undersized as an SG, and too 'shoot-first' to be much of a PG (1.7 APG in his career). He's sporadically excelled as an 'instant-offense' type 7th man, or filling in for injured folks. Even at his best, he's just points and 3's, though as the Hosen noted, his 11 AST the other day were eye-opening. He is starting right now in WAS, as A-Daniels is banged up, D-Steve is not very good, and G-Aren is a ways away from returning.

Joe Smith was even better in college (University of Maryland as well), and was a famously bust-y #1 overall pick (though his 18/8 type numbers from his early years don't look too bad). Nowadays, he's pretty solid - 10/8 seems reasonable if he's getting 25 MPG (which he has been with Wilcox hurting and SweetNickyC in constant foul trouble). He doesn't hurt from the line as much as other low-tier big men (Melvin Ely, or the like). There's no reason he won't quietly produce for OKC, and for odensque.

Judgment: Dead weight has been dropped, and that can only benefit odensque.  The players picked up are solid, and, for the moment, have an opportunity to produce. Nice work, O! And go Terps!

Weekly Forecast -- Week 1

The Later Hosens vs. tsaogrip 0002

General: The defending champs face a tough matchup in Week 1. 2nd Round pick Danny Granger only plays two games, while tsaogrip has 2 top 4-gaming Bucks in Michael Redd and R-Jeff (though only 2 games from VC and C-Booz). Tsaogrip also has a significant Sunday game advantage.

Injuries: None yet.

Categories:

Tsaogrip should win AST, PTS, FGM, FTM, and FT%

The Hosen should win 3s, DREB, BLK

Toss ups -- OREB, STL, TO, PF, FG%

What to watch for:

(The Hosen's Joakim Noah)

For the Hosen, all eyes will be on the young frontcourt (Oden, Love, Noah) and their minutes. The roles of Russell Westbrook, Nate Robinson, Flip, Marquis, and Marreese will also be under scrutiny. Look for J-Salm and Matt Barnes to light it up, but how much will they contribute outside of points?

As for tsaogrip - he'll be watching the Knicks SFs (Q-Rich and W-Chandler) to see how things shake out, and looking to see how much and how well Yi and Diaw play.

Fearless Prediction: I think the young Hosen will step up on the glass, and win OREBs, but at the expense of the negatives: Final Score tsaogrip 8 - Hosen 6

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Nor'easter vs. Mongoose

General: An intriguing matchup - those of you who read the 'First Look' series know that we thought quite highly of both these teams' drafts. Both teams are huge in the frontcourt. Nor'easter gets 4 games from Bogut, but only 2 from Emeka, DevHarr, and Duncan. Mongoose has 4 from C-Vill, but only 2 from Okur and D-Will; overall, the games situation in general, and on Sunday in particular, is pretty even.

Injuries: Mongoose will be without Martell webster until December, it seems; Deron Williams' appears out for Week 1; if he does play, it could make a big difference. Baron Davis is questionable. Thaddeus Young has a hurt back. Nor'easter is missing Monta Ellis indefinitely.

Categories:

Nor'easter should win AST, FTM, FG%

Mongoose should win TO, PF, FT%, 3s, STL

Toss ups -- OREB, DREB, PTS, BLK, FGM

(Nor'easter's Devin Harris)

What to watch for: Being without D-Will hurts the Goose's chances of winning PTS and FGM. Any Disq's could make a big difference, and with such big-man heavy teams, there will surely be some. The Mongoose will be curious to see Thaddeus Young, Baron Davis in LA, and young Mr. Bynum. Are Tyrus Thomas and Brandon Bass really starting? We'll see. For Nor'easter, the minutes of Jarrett Jack, Al Thornton, Pietrus, and RudyFer are worth monitoring.

Fearless Prediction: Without Williams, and with B-Dizzle 'questionable', Nor'easter will prevail: Final Score Nor'easter 9 - Mongoose 6

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Les Digits vs. play my$hkin flute

General: Unfortunately, I don't think this one will be so close. I think my$hkin just has more minutes on the floor this week. Les Digits has only 2 games from Jamison, Chauncey, J-Smoove, Horford, and T-Murph. That will prove too much to overcome, I suspect, in the counting categories.

Injuries: my$hkin will be without Larry Hughes, and Dunleavy is banged up. Les Digits has no Manu, J-Smoove might be limited, and MarvWill is suspended for the first game of the season.

Categories:

Les Digits should win TO, PF

my$hkin should win PTS, FGM, FTM, FG%, FT%, AST, STL, BLK, 3s

Toss ups -- OREB, DREB

(my$hkin's Chris Duhon)

What to watch for: Les Digits needs to see how the minutes situations of Conley, D-Rose, and Varejao shake out. My$hkin will be looking to see how much run Kelenna, Duhon, Posey, and Mayo get, and how they respond

Fearless Prediction: No doubt about the outcome: Final Score my$hkin 10 - Les Digits 4

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blazers (thenopp) vs. odensque

General: This one should be interesting*. Both teams are more or less at full strength, and thenopp will outscore odensque by quite a bit. However, the big men of odensque (Brand, Dalembert, Big Z) may very well be enough to make this a fight.

*assuming lineups are set

Injuries: thenopp is without Agent Zero for a while, and Carmelo is apparently suspended for the first two games. Odensque will be without the services of Brad Miller, who's suspended for 5 games.

Categories:

thenopp should win PTS, FT, FGM, FT%,

odensque should win OREB, DREB, BLK, STL, TO

Toss ups -- 3s, PF, FG%, AST

(thenopp's Wally Szczerbiak)

What to watch for: odensque is very interested to how see the new look Sixers gel with Brand and Dalembert. He'll need good weeks from preseason disappointments Marion and Moon in order to win blocks, and will be looking carefully at the minutes and play of B-Simmons and Bayless. Thenopp needs to see whether rookies B-Lopez and Marc Gasol will help shore up his thin frontcourt - and whether aging veterans Hill, Mobley, and Szczerbiak can contribute this year.

Fearless Prediction: I think thenopp will win 3s and AST, but either JO or Hinrich will fatally DISQ: Final Score: odensque 8 - thenopp 7

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garbage speakers vs. The Lovin' Spoonful

General: garbage speakers may suffer from C-But, J-Rich, AK-47, and J-Rich only having two games, though the Spoonful also have some key 2-gamers (Bibby, Parker, R. Brewer). I think the Spoonful will outscore the speakers, and win via the counting stats, but the margin of victory will come down to rebounds.

Injuries: Only Francisco Garcia is out for the speakers, though Camby hasn't played in the preseason. On the Spoonful side, Wade and Bosh are forever day to day, and Little K-Mart, Ben Gordon, and Beno are slightly banged up.

(garbage speaker's Kyle Korver)

Categories:

The Lovin' Spoonful should win PTS, FTM, FGM, FT%, AST

garbage speakers should win TO, PF, BLK

Toss ups -- 3s, STL, FG%, OREB, DREB

What to watch for: garbage speakers wants to see Camby and Artest thrive in their new environs, and will be curious about the roles of Terry and Odom. Spencer Hawes might be huge this week with Brad Miller out. The Lovin' Spoonful want to see how much Hakim Warrick plays, how well LaMarcus fits in with Oden, and what's up with supposedly starting Chris Quinn. Starbury's role is also in question, and which Bargnani will show up this year?

Fearless Prediction: Sadly, Hawes will grab a lot of boards (and Carl Landry(?) won't) - Final Score: The Lovin' Spoonful 8 - garbage speakers 6

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The first Waiver Wire pickups will be tonight/tomorrow; I'll be sure to review who did what, and why...

First Look -- odensque

Quick Draft Summary: Another strange draft for Owen -- he largely went for big men early, with some key all-rounders (Marion/Lewis). It looks like there's not enough production on the bench without some improvements, but a lack of minutes may keep the negatives low, Lil Dogger style.

Frontcourt: Brand (1), Sheed (5), B-Miller (7), Dalembert (8), Big Z (10)

There's a lot of Blocks here (and the Matrix adds more still), and pretty good rebounding. This may be the year when Sheed, B-Mill, and the Big Z decline precipitously, however, and Brand is coming off a serious injuy. Also, no one knows if the Haitian Sensation will fit in with Brand or not.

Backcourt: Calderon (4), Mo Williams (6), Bayless (15)

Some think Calderon will put up Nash-like numbers this year, and he might. Even so, that will likely not be enough to get Odensque in contention for assists or steals most weeks, unless, of course Bayless turns out to be an assist machine (which seems unlikely).

Swingmen: Marion (2), Rashard (3), Rip (9), Battier (11), Raja Bell (14)

Many expect a decline from Marion in Miami, and Rashard didn't produce as well in ORL as he had as a Sonic. Rip is no longer a 20PPG player (maybe no one on this team is, except perhaps Brand). Battier now has Artest ahead of him, but he and Raja still will hit plenty of 3's with low negatives.

X-Factors: Bobby Simmons (16), Jamario Moon (12), Ben Wallace (17), T-Out (13)

Simmons, Moon, and Outlaw all have high multi-cat upside, but have question marks as well. Big Ben is probably just dead weight, but we all have fond memories of crazy 7 block, 5 steal games - maybe there are a few more left.

Strengths: 3s, BLK, TO, REB, FT%

Weaknesses: PTS, FT, FGM, FG%, AST

Best Pick: Outlaw (13) - he's going to force his way onto the court

Worst Pick: Sheed (5) In our league, 'Sheed's negatives (esp. Techs) should push him down a few rounds